BRUSSELS – Ricardo Baretzky, President of the European Centre for Information Policy and Security (ECIPS), the official EU intelligence agency, has issued a grave warning: July 4th could become “Guy Fawkes Day” in the Middle East. This caution comes amid mounting evidence that not only has Iran reached the threshold of nuclear weapons capability, but there are strong indications it may have already obtained a nuclear bomb and could sell it to rogue actors, a scenario that is driving President Trump toward imminent military action.
Mounting Evidence: Iran’s Nuclear Breakout
Recent intelligence and international monitoring reports have dramatically shifted the assessment of Iran’s nuclear status. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Western intelligence have confirmed that Iran has amassed enough uranium enriched to 60%, a level that significantly shortens the time needed to reach weapons-grade material. As of June 2025, Iran is capable of producing more than nine bombs’ worth of fissile material, with its enrichment program continuing “unabatedly, even further beyond any credible civilian justification”.
The White House has acknowledged that Iran now possesses all the technical means necessary to produce a nuclear weapon within “a couple of weeks” of a political decision from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. . Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently stated, “Once you’re at 60 [percent enrichment], you’re 90% of the way there. You are, in essence, a threshold nuclear weapons state, which is what Iran basically has become”.
Strong Indications: Iran May Already Have the Bomb
While official international bodies stop short of declaring Iran a nuclear-armed state, there is a growing consensus among intelligence officials that Iran may have already crossed the threshold. According to European diplomats, Iran’s nuclear escalation has gone “beyond any credible civilian justification” and the stockpile is sufficient for multiple warheads. The IAEA’s ability to monitor Iran’s activities has been hampered, raising the risk that weaponization efforts could have proceeded undetected.
A source familiar with the latest intelligence told CNN, “They have the capacity or expertise to do that anymore,” referring to the possibility that Iran’s most secure facilities remain intact and operational, despite Israeli strikes. This uncertainty, coupled with Iran’s refusal to allow full IAEA verification, has fueled fears that Iran might not only possess a bomb but could transfer nuclear technology or weapons to non-state actors or “mad men”—a scenario that would dramatically raise the stakes for global security.
Why Trump Will Act: Preventing Proliferation to Rogue Actors
President Trump’s calculus is now shaped by the urgent need to prevent Iran from transferring nuclear weapons or technology to extremist groups or hostile states. The White House has stated unequivocally that Iran’s nuclear capability poses an existential threat “not just to Israel but to the United States and to the entire world”. The prospect of a nuclear weapon falling into the hands of unpredictable or radical actors is seen as a red line that cannot be crossed.
The U.S. and its allies fear that, with Iran’s nuclear program now largely undeterred, the regime could seek to leverage its arsenal for geopolitical gain or, worse, sell a bomb to non-state actors or unstable regimes. This risk is cited as a primary reason why Trump is preparing for military intervention, with sources indicating that he views direct action as the only way to prevent a catastrophic proliferation scenario.
Escalation Is Now Likely: Intelligence and Policy Converge
Baretzky’s warning reflects the consensus in the intelligence community: the conflict is poised to escalate rapidly, and the window for de-escalation has effectively closed. The U.S. is reportedly considering the deployment of its most powerful bunker-busting bombs to target Iran’s deeply buried facilities, signaling the seriousness of the threat assessment and the likelihood of imminent action.
“Get ready. July 4th might be “Guy Fawkes Day” in the Middle East. The intelligence we have, much of which is already in the public domain, indicates that the war is poised to escalate rapidly. Turning back is unlikely for President Trump at this stage,” Baretzky stated.
Key Facts and Intelligence Available to the Public
Iran’s Uranium Stockpile: Iran has accumulated enough enriched uranium for at least nine nuclear warheads, with enrichment levels now at 60% and rising.
Weaponization Timeline: The White House and IAEA agree Iran could produce a nuclear weapon within weeks of a political decision.
Monitoring Gaps: The IAEA’s ability to verify Iran’s activities is now limited, raising concerns about undetected weaponization.
Proliferation Risk:There is strong indication that Iran could sell nuclear weapons or technology to non-state actors or unstable regimes, a scenario driving U.S. Policy.
U.S. Military Posture: The Pentagon is preparing for possible strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, including the use of bunker-busting munitions.
Israeli Strikes: Israel’s recent attacks have delayed, but not destroyed, Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
With intelligence indicating Iran may already possess nuclear weapons and could transfer them to unpredictable actors, President Trump is under immense pressure to act. The risk of proliferation to “mad men” is cited as the precise reason why military intervention is now seen as inevitable. As President Ricardo Baretzky warns, July 4th could mark a historic and dangerous turning point in the Middle East, with the world on edge as the prospect of a new nuclear crisis looms.
